Market News

By Philip Shimnom Clement 

Development and financial experts have argued that the current rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are far from the economic realities being faced by Nigerians.

Daily Trust reports that after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) rebased GDP to capture the informal sector, Nigeria’s GDP rose to N372.8 trillion in 2024 from N314.02 trillion in 2023.

In nominal terms, the rebased GDP for 2019 stood at N205.09trillion, N213.63 trillion in 2020, N243.30 trillion in 2021, N274.23 trillion in 2022, N314.02 trillion in 2023, and N372.82 trillion in 2024.

The statistics bureau adopted 2019 as its base year away from 2010 that’s previously reported.

The rebasing exercise covers the period from 2019 to 2023 and reflects changes in the economy’s structure, sectoral contributions, and data sources.

What experts are saying

Experts say that although Nigeria’s rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shows a 41.7 per cent increase in nominal estimates, they are merely figures that does not reflect the current economic situation in the country.

At a virtual webinar session tagged “Insights from the rebased GDP data” hosted by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), they noted that the rebased GDP is not all encompassing and should not be used as a yardstick to justify a thriving economy. 

Speaking at the webinar, Ekundayo Mesagan, a development economist, said although the rebased data was welcoming, it hasn’t translated into better conditions for Nigerians.

“It’s like you having a situation of happy statistics, but unhappy people. That is what we have with the new GDP figures,” he said.

He however stated that instead, “the government should have specific policy targets. For instance, a specific policy can be targeted at the entertainment sector. How can we bring more youth on board and empower them through this area.”

Similarly, Yinka Babalola, country director at the International Budget Partnership, said the new figures have not altered the government’s fiscal capacity or improved conditions for ordinary Nigerians.

Ms Babalola also warned that the rebased GDP has no immediate impact on ordinary citizens, as it neither puts more money in their pockets, makes farm inputs cheaper, nor improves access to basic healthcare.

On revenue mobilisation, she said: “We tend to go for the low-hanging fruits of increasing rates… but then there are other tax categories… high net worth individuals and larger corporations who mostly are not paying their fair share.”

In the same vein, Teslim Shitta-Bey, chief economist at Proshare, who represented the CEO, Femi Awoyemi, said Nigeria’s capital market does not reflect the real economy.

“We find out there’s very little alignment between it and the structure of the economy. There is no agricultural company in the prime segment of the market,” he said.

Meanwhile, Faith Iyoha, who led the NESG’s technical presentation, acknowledged that the economy remains deeply informal and productivity “structurally weak.”

On the other hand, Tope Fasua, special adviser to the president on economic affairs, while offering a government’s narrative stated that even if Nigeria’s GDP reaches $550 billion or $600 billion, it still reflects progress, and he was pleased that the country is now placing greater importance on data.