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OPEC+ looks set to stay the course at Monday’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting, with four anonymous delegates telling Reuters the group is unlikely to tinker with its output policy. A fifth source said it was too early to say. The plan on the table remains: raise production by 548,000 barrels per day in August—part of a previously announced unwinding of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts by eight members.

At face value, it’s a logical move to regain market share while summer demand props up prices. But before anyone starts pricing in those extra barrels, a note of caution: these unnamed “sources close to the matter” have been off the mark before—and not infrequently. The group itself hasn’t commented directly ahead of the meeting. And as some analysts have wisely pointed out, actual production doesn’t necessarily reflect production plans.

The broader signals from OPEC+ in recent months suggest a carefully calculated pivot. The Saudi-led bloc had been curbing supply for years to support prices, but now—with U.S. gasoline costs under scrutiny and Washington pressuring for more output—it's finding a new equilibrium. The UAE’s early delivery of its 300,000 bpd quota boost is emblematic of this shift.

Even with these planned increases, oil prices remain rangebound. Brent was hovering around $69 on Friday—not exactly bullish, but not falling apart either. That’s partly because not all members have actually met their hike targets, blunting the impact of quota expansions.

OPEC’s own monthly outlooks paint a balanced picture. The group expects solid demand through the second half of 2025, buoyed by travel and petrochemical growth, particularly in Asia. Yet it also flags persistent uncertainty—soft economic data, slowing Chinese momentum, and EV uptake all threaten demand stability.

So, while the JMMC may recommend no change on Monday, take the whispers with a dose of skepticism. As always with OPEC+, the real policy signal often arrives only when the barrels—or lack thereof—hit the water.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com