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The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report has projected that Nigeria could import more wheat in the first half of next year, due to a stable exchange rate and ample global supply.

The report indicated a strong global supply outlook for wheat, which has a direct impact on import-dependent nations such as Nigeria.

Also, a new sense of “macroeconomic stabilisation is expected to reshape the pricing landscape for the country’s most essential staples: bread and pasta”.

The primary catalyst for this shift, according to analysts, is the relative calm of the Naira. Analysts suggested that if the currency maintains its current stability through January and February, the benefits of lower global wheat prices—which have remained soft on international markets—will finally “trickle down” to the Nigerian consumer.

 For months, the high cost of foreign exchange acted as a barrier, preventing domestic price relief even when global commodity prices fell. With a steadier local currency,  the report  said millers can now lock in import costs with greater certainty, paving the way for more predictable retail pricing.

The USDA increased its global wheat carryover forecast to 274.9 million tons, the ninth-largest on record. While global prices are low, analysts noted that the final price of a bag of flour in Lagos or Kano is heavily dictated by the Naira-to-Dollar exchange rate.

Industry analysts point out that Nigerian millers currently operate with a thin stock-to-use ratio of roughly 40 days. This “hand-to-mouth” approach means that any sudden fluctuation in the Naira is reflected in flour prices almost immediately.

USDA  said current wheat imports, the main contributor to the surge, are expected to increase by 450,000 tons to reach 6.7 million tons. The overall jump in imports is attributed to the combined effect of a stable local currency exchange rate, improved consumer purchasing power, and a drop in global grain prices compared to the previous period. These factors are also expected to lower production costs for millers and livestock feed manufacturers.

Recently, officials of the United States Mission in Nigeria  said the  Nigerian-American agricultural trade, mainly driven by wheat imports, is on track to exceed $700 million by the fall this year.

The outlook was announced during the recent visit to Apapa Port by the US Consul-General in Lagos, Rick Swart, and the US Agricultural Counsellor, Chris Bielecki.

The delegation’s visit was to witness the unloading of 50,000 metric tons of US-grown wheat valued at about $15 million, purchased by Flour Mills of Nigeria (FMN), a major importer of American wheat.

Nigeria is currently the third-largest export market for US wheat, reflecting the country’s reliance on imports to meet demand for flour, bread, pasta, and other wheat-based foods.

According to the official, the US agricultural trade with Nigeria continues to support American farmers while enabling Nigerian manufacturers to sustain jobs across milling, baking and food processing. The trade also ensures a consistent supply of quality grain and inputs for Nigerian consumers.

According to the US Mission, the expanding trade volume reflects stronger commercial ties at a time when global food supply chains remain exposed to geopolitical tensions, climate volatility and disruptions linked to the Russia–Ukraine war, which has reshaped grain flows since 2022.

In response, Nigeria and other African countries have diversified sourcing away from the Black Sea region, increasing purchases from the United States and other exporters.

Nigerian authorities have stepped up engagement with international partners to stabilise food imports while working to lift domestic output.

The Federal Government has continued to promote wheat under the National Agricultural Growth Scheme, with a focus on irrigation farming and improved seed varieties.

However, analysts say local production still falls well short of industrial demand, leaving millers dependent on imports in the near to medium term.

Trade specialists point out that the projected $700 million agricultural trade figure for this year marks a notable increase compared with levels recorded just a few years ago. Growth,they noted, has been driven mainly by wheat, alongside soybeans, poultry inputs and animal feed components.

Beyond wheat, US exports to Nigeria also include dairy products, poultry, food preparations, and beverages, while Nigeria ships smaller volumes of cocoa, sesame, and processed foods to the US market.