Marché Nouvelles

Brent crude futures rose 0.6% to $65.14 per barrel at the time of writing, while West Texas Intermediate futures lost 0.8% to $61.28 a barrel.

At a meeting on Sunday, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to lift exports by 137,000 barrels a day in December before freezing any further increases in January, February and March.

The decision represents a shift in strategy for the eight-member group, which has raised its collective production quota by almost 3 million barrels a day over the past year. The cartel has slowed the pace of expansion in recent months amid growing concerns that a surge in supply could trigger another slump in prices.

The International Energy Agency estimates that global output has reached 108m barrels a day, around 3 million barrels more than current demand. The agency attributed the recent weakness in oil prices to this imbalance.

However, Suhail Al Mazrouei, the UAE’s energy minister, rejected suggestions that the market was awash with crude. “I’m not going to talk about an oversupply scenario. I can’t see that,” he said in Abu Dhabi. “And I think all of what we are seeing is more demand.”

Oil prices have fallen about 10% over the past three months, pressured by signs of slowing economic activity in major consuming regions and rising stockpiles.

Following the OPEC+ announcement, Morgan Stanley revised its forecast for oil prices upwards. “Even if the OPEC announcement does not change the mechanics of our production outlook, it does send an important signal,” the bank’s analysts said. “With OPEC involvement, volatility is reduced.”

The bank raised its forecast for Brent crude to $60 a barrel for the first half of 2026, up from $57.50 previously.