Market News

(Bloomberg) -- Oil shaved off some of its recent gain as a worsening market output tempers geopolitical concerns.

The International Energy Agency said it now sees an even larger record oil surplus next year as OPEC+ continues to revive production and supply from rivals grows. Brent wavered after the report, while holding above $67 a barrel and still up by more than 2.5% for the week.

The slight dip follows a three-day gain driven by tensions in the Middle East and Europe, with US President Donald Trump questioning Israel’s attack on Doha and Russia’s incursion into Polish airspace. His social media post on Wednesday prompted futures to spike briefly as investors covered short positions.

Oil traders are broadly grappling with the balance between geopolitical risk and rising supplies, which has kept prices trapped in a band between $65 and $70 a barrel since the start of August.

“On the one hand, we have this surplus emerging in the market. But we’re also seeing the risk to supply,” Toril Bosoni, head of the oil markets division at the IEA said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

Trump’s post on Moscow’s drones followed remarks by the US president to European Union officials that he’s willing to add new tariffs on India and China, the top buyers of Russian oil, in an effort to get the Kremlin to negotiate with Ukraine — but only if EU nations do so as well. So far, Trump has only targeted New Delhi for the trade.

While much of the buildup in oil stockpiles has been away from major pricing points so far this year, data on Wednesday showed the biggest increase in American crude and petroleum inventories since the summer of 2023, a move that if sustained could weigh on prices.

The market is caught in a “tug-of-war between increasingly bearish fundamentals and heightened geopolitical risks,” according to a note from Citigroup Inc. The bank reaffirmed its forecasts for Brent to drop into the low $60s a barrel by year-end and into 2026.