Market News

BY Eli Grant

- Nigeria's pension regulator (PenCom) has expanded fund access to sukuk, pre-IPO infrastructure, and alternative assets to combat 70% naira depreciation and 22% inflation.

- The $17B industry is shifting from fixed-income to high-growth sectors, with infrastructure investments rising 50% and private equity surging to 229.4B naira in 2025.

- Sukuk's asset-backed structure and infrastructure's inflation-hedging potential align with global trends, while addressing a $21-month pension arrears crisis through higher returns.

- Critics warn of liquidity risks in sukuk and speculative pre-IPO projects, but PenCom emphasizes disciplined execution and governance to mitigate capital misallocation.

- The reforms signal Nigeria's pension funds transitioning from passive observers to active drivers of economic resilience in a volatile FX environment.

In a world where inflation erodes value and currencies crumble under the weight of macroeconomic instability, Nigeria's pension fund managers are rewriting the playbook. The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has unveiled a bold regulatory overhaul, granting pension fund operators (PFAs) expanded access to sukuk, pre-IPO infrastructure projects, and alternative assets. This move is not merely a regulatory tweak—it is a calculated response to a crisis that has seen the naira lose 70% of its value against the dollar since May 2023 and inflation hover near 22%. For a $17 billion industry, the stakes have never been higher.

The logic is straightforward: traditional fixed-income assets, once the bedrock of pension portfolios, are now liabilities in a high-inflation environment. By shifting toward alternative investments, PFAs can hedge against currency depreciation and inflation while tapping into high-growth sectors. The data tells a compelling story. In the first half of 2025 alone, private equity allocations surged to 229.4 billion naira, infrastructure fund investments rose 50% to 242.8 billion naira, and REITs exploded fivefold to 77.8 billion naira. These figures are not anomalies—they are the early signs of a systemic pivot.

The Case for Sukuk and Infrastructure

Sukuk, Islamic financial instruments backed by tangible assets, offer a unique blend of stability and yield. Unlike conventional bonds, sukuk derive returns from the performance of underlying assets such as infrastructure, real estate, or commodities. In Nigeria's context, where the naira's volatility makes dollar-denominated assets unattractive, sukuk provide a middle ground. Their structure—often tied to long-term projects like toll roads or energy grids—insulates investors from short-term currency swings while generating steady cash flows.

Ask Aime: How can Nigerian pension fund managers capitalize on sukuk and infrastructure investments to navigate inflation and currency volatility?

Infrastructure, meanwhile, is a natural hedge against inflation. As construction costs and material prices rise, so too do the revenues of infrastructure operators. This dynamic is particularly relevant in Nigeria, where the government has prioritized projects like the Lagos-Ibadan railway and the Dangote Refinery. By investing in pre-IPO infrastructure ventures, pension funds can secure equity stakes in these projects at favorable valuations, locking in growth potential before public markets capitalize on it.

The Global Context and Local Imperatives

Nigeria's pivot mirrors a global trend. Private credit markets, for instance, are projected to double in size to $3 trillion by 2027, as investors seek alternatives to traditional bonds. In this landscape, Nigeria's pension funds are not just playing catch-up—they are positioning themselves to lead. The regulatory reforms, which include a push for floating-rate bonds indexed to inflation, align with this global shift. Such instruments would allow PFAs to protect their fixed-income portfolios from real-value erosion, a critical need in an environment where even government bonds yield negative real returns.

Yet the urgency is not just economic—it is existential. Nigeria's pension system faces a $21-month arrears backlog in pension rights, a problem that cannot be solved without boosting returns. By diversifying into sukuk and infrastructure, PFAs can generate the alpha needed to close this gap while supporting national development. The recent “Pension Boost 1.0” initiative, which increased monthly payouts by 43%, is a testament to the potential of this strategy.

Risks and Realities

Critics will point to the risks: Nigeria's infrastructure pipeline is underdeveloped, sukuk markets lack liquidity, and pre-IPO investments are inherently speculative. These are valid concerns. However, the alternative—staying anchored to a collapsing naira and inflation-eroded bonds—is far riskier. The key lies in disciplined execution. PFAs must prioritize projects with clear revenue streams and robust governance, while PenCom must enforce stringent due diligence to prevent misallocation of capital.

For investors, the message is clear: now is the time to act. The regulatory window is open, and the market is primed for those who can navigate its complexities. By embracing sukuk, infrastructure, and pre-IPO opportunities, Nigeria's pension funds are not just protecting assets—they are building a legacy of resilience in one of the world's most volatile economies.

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In the end, this is more than a financial strategy—it is a statement of intent. Nigeria's pension industry is no longer content to be a passive observer in a turbulent world. It is becoming a force for change, one that turns the challenges of inflation and currency depreciation into opportunities for growth and stability. For those with the foresight to act, the rewards will be substantial.