Market News

By Kazeem Ugbodaga

Nigeria’s economy expanded by approximately 17 per cent in US dollar terms between the first halves of 2025 and 2026, as a stronger naira combined with accelerating economic activity to increase the value of the country’s output in dollar terms.

The development was disclosed by Taiwo Oyedele, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, in a statement issued by the Federal Ministry of Finance on Tuesday.

According to the ministry, the naira appreciated by more than 12 per cent between the first half of 2025 and the first half of 2026.

The currency improvement, combined with real economic growth, resulted in the estimated 17 per cent expansion in the economy’s US dollar value.

The development provides fresh momentum for the Federal Government’s ambition to build a $1 trillion economy by 2030, a target already incorporated into the government’s Medium-Term National Development Plan for 2026–2030.

The dollar-value expansion comes against the backdrop of stronger real economic activity. Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 4.23 per cent in Q2 2025 and 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of this year.

The stronger second-quarter performance lifted real GDP growth for the first half of 2026 to 4.16 per cent, up from 3.68 per cent during the corresponding period last year.

The Finance Ministry said the expansion was also becoming more broad-based. Twenty-seven economic subsectors recorded growth of more than three per cent in Q2 2026, compared with 23 subsectors a year earlier.

Manufacturing grew by 3.24 per cent, more than double its 1.60 per cent growth in Q2 2025. Agriculture expanded by 4.39 per cent from 2.82 per cent, while services grew by 4.60 per cent compared with 3.94 per cent previously.

Oyedele said the combination of stronger growth and exchange-rate stability could strengthen dollar incomes and purchasing power if sustained, while helping to position Nigeria among Africa’s largest economies.

The ministry said Nigeria could potentially become Africa’s largest economy by 2028 if macroeconomic stability, sectoral growth and investor confidence continue to improve.

It also cited an IMF projection placing Nigeria among the top 10 contributors to global real GDP growth in 2026, with the country expected to account for roughly 1.5 per cent of global growth.

The Finance Ministry therefore stressed that sustaining reforms and policy consistency would be crucial to converting the improving macroeconomic figures into broader economic gains.

“The Government remains focused on accelerating inclusive growth and translating these macroeconomic gains into shared prosperity for every Nigerian family,” the ministry said.