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Deutsche Bank sees gold price averaging $4,450 next year - YAHOO FINANCE
BY Pedro Goncalves Finance Reporter, Yahoo Finance UK
Gold (GC=F)
Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, pausing after a strong run this week, yet the pullback did little to deter Deutsche Bank (DBK.DE) from sharply upgrading its medium-term outlook for the metal.
Gold futures (GC=F) lost 0.2% to $4,195.60 per ounce, while spot gold slipped 0.1% to $4,164.03 an ounce at the time of writing.
The modest retreat followed a rally fuelled by growing market confidence that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its 9–10 December meeting.
Traders are assigning a 79.8% probability to a 25 basis-point cut, according to CME FedWatch, a steep jump from 24% a week earlier. Expectations have also been buoyed by speculation that a more dovish figure could succeed Fed chair Jerome Powell, alongside a series of weaker-than-expected US economic indicators.
Against this backdrop, Deutsche Bank (DBK.DE) has raised its average gold (GC=F) price forecast for 2026 to $4,450 per ounce from $4,000, projecting a trading range of $3,950 to $4,950. A peak of $4,950 would stand roughly 14% above current December 2026 futures.
The bank attributed the upgrade to resilient investor appetite, continued central-bank accumulation and a muted supply response.
“The positive structural picture shows inelastic demand from central banks and ETF investment diverting supply from the jewellery market. Also, overall growth in demand outpaces supply,” analyst Michael Hsueh said in a note.
