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Oil prices could climb well beyond Friday’s 7% spike, with Wall Street analysts warning the commodity could top $90 a barrel if the Israel-Iran conflict broadens dramatically.

On Friday, West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) and international benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) traded around $74 a barrel. Both pared overnight gains that saw prices spike more than 13%.

Goldman Sachs analysts estimate the conflict could temporarily knock out 1.75 million barrels per day of Iranian supply over six months, only partially offset by increased output from other producers inside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).

"We estimate that Brent jumps to a peak just over $90/bbl but declines back to the $60s in 2026 as Iran supply recovers,” Goldman’s Daan Struyven and his team wrote in a note published Friday morning.

The next upside risk will depend on the scope of Iran’s response to Israel’s strike against its nuclear program. A broader conflict involving regional producers or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil flows — could push prices roughly 35% higher from current levels.

“Based on our prior analysis, we estimate that oil prices may exceed $100/bbl in an extreme tail scenario of an extended disruption,” the Goldman team wrote.

Before the Israeli strikes, JPMorgan analysts had forecast Brent could spike as high as $120 in a worst-case scenario.

Still, both firms see the closure of Hormuz as an unlikely scenario, and any upside price move short-lived.

“Our comfort zone remains with oil prices in the $60-65 range, as sustained gains could severely impact inflation, reversing months of cooling in U.S. consumer prices,” JPMorgan’s Natasha Kaneva wrote on Friday morning.

The risk of demand destruction remains a key limiting factor.

“The issue is that the consumer can’t really afford that level of pricing. And so demand would come down significantly,” Hedgeye Risk Management energy analyst Fernando Valle told Yahoo Finance. "Typically, it does not take long after these initial skirmishes before it reverses."

In a letter to the UN, Iran described the strikes as a "declaration of war." Tehran also launched a drone attack on Israel, seen by some as a precursor to a more severe missile onslaught.

President Trump urged Iran to "make a deal" over its nuclear program to avert further conflict, in a post on social media. "JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE," he wrote.