Market News

BY  Segun Adeyemi

The United States sharply reduced its imports of Nigerian crude oil in January 2026, cutting volumes by almost half, underscoring evolving global energy dynamics and intensifying competition in Africa’s oil market.

• The United States cut Nigerian crude imports by nearly 50 per cent in January 2026, signalling a sharp shift in trade flows.
• Despite higher oil production, Nigeria lost market share to Angola and emerging suppliers like Ghana.
• The drop comes amid a broader slowdown in U.S. crude imports and evolving global energy dynamics.
• Analysts say structural trade weaknesses and policy uncertainty could shape Nigeria’s long-term export outlook.

Fresh data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that imports fell by 47.16 per cent month on month, dropping from 3.149 million barrels in December 2025 to just 1.664 million barrels in January. The decline of 1.485 million barrels marks one of the steepest short-term contractions in Nigeria’s share of the U.S. crude market in recent years.

The value of those imports mirrored the sharp fall in volume. On a customs basis, Nigerian crude exports to the U.S. declined from $217.36 million in December to $115.99 million in January, equivalent to roughly $218 million and $116 million, respectively, at current exchange estimates. Cost, insurance, and freight valuations also fell from $223.10 million to $118.95 million, highlighting a broad contraction in both demand and trade flows.

The narrowing gap between customs and CIF values, from about $5.74 million in December to $2.96 million in January, suggests relatively lower shipping or insurance costs during the period, or potentially shorter supply routes.

The drop in Nigerian crude imports comes amid a wider slowdown in U.S. oil demand. Total U.S. crude imports declined by about 5.1 per cent, from 198.29 million barrels in December to 188.21 million barrels in January. In value terms, total imports fell from $11.41 billion to $10.56 billion on a customs basis, reinforcing a broader cooling in global oil trade at the start of the year.

Angola and Ghana gain ground as Nigeria loses U.S. market share

Within Africa, however, the picture is more competitive than contractionary. While total African crude exports to the U.S. remained flat at 6.933 million barrels, other producers gained ground at Nigeria’s expense.

Angola’s exports surged from 575,000 barrels in December to 2.062 million barrels in January, while Ghana emerged as a new supplier, shipping 738,000 barrels after recording no measurable exports the previous month.

Libya, by contrast, saw its exports fall sharply, from 2.137 million barrels to 1.086 million barrels over the same period.

Nigeria’s share of total U.S. crude imports weakened significantly, dropping from about 1.59 per cent in December to just 0.88 per cent in January. This erosion highlights how quickly market share can shift in response to pricing, logistics, and refinery demand patterns.

Crude oil remains the backbone of Nigeria’s exports to the United States, although its dominance eased slightly as overall trade volumes declined. Total U.S. imports from Nigeria stood at $183 million in January, down from $297 million in December. Crude accounted for between 63.4 per cent and 65.0 per cent of that total, compared with over 73 per cent the previous month.

At the same time, the U.S. widened its trade surplus with Nigeria, which rose from $84 million in December to $419 million in January. The shift was driven by a surge in American exports to Nigeria, climbing from $381 million to $602 million, even as imports from Nigeria fell sharply.

Across Africa, the U.S. swung to a trade deficit of $503 million in January, reversing a $174 million surplus recorded in December. Imports from the continent rose to $3.54 billion, while exports edged slightly lower to $3.04 billion.

Rising output fails to offset weakening demand and policy headwinds

Despite the January decline, Nigeria remains a dominant supplier of African crude to the United States over a longer horizon. In 2025, Nigeria accounted for 52.2 per cent of Africa’s crude exports to the U.S., supplying 46.618 million barrels out of a continental total of 89.371 million barrels. This represented a drop from 50.793 million barrels in 2024, but a higher share of overall African exports to the U.S., as those exports declined.

The latest trade figures are particularly striking given that Nigeria’s oil production has been rising. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited reported output of 1.64 million barrels per day in January 2026, up from 1.55 million barrels per day in December. Yet increased production has not translated into stronger U.S. demand, suggesting that external market forces are outweighing domestic supply gains.

Financially, the state oil firm reported a profit after tax of N385 billion in January, equivalent to roughly $260 million, even as revenue fell sharply from N4.82 trillion in December to N2.571 trillion, or about $1.7 billion to $3.2 billion. The divergence between profit and revenue reflects cost adjustments and operational efficiencies, but also points to a more volatile earnings environment.

The decline in U.S. imports of Nigerian crude comes amid shifting trade policies and geopolitical considerations. The reintroduction of tariff-focused measures under U.S. President Donald Trump, including a rise in Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent in 2025, has added uncertainty to bilateral trade, particularly for non-oil exports.

Although crude oil has largely been exempt from these tariffs, the broader policy environment has influenced trade sentiment and sourcing decisions.

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Economist Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, played down the direct impact of U.S. tariffs on Nigeria’s economy.

“Our trade with the US is not that strategic. When anything goes wrong, it is not as if it can have any fundamental effect on our economy,” he said.

Instead, he pointed to structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s trade profile, noting its heavy reliance on crude oil exports and limited diversification. He also highlighted U.S. visa restrictions as a more significant long-term constraint.

“Barriers to travel limit business interactions and investment inflows. That is more critical than tariffs in the long run,” Yusuf added.

Taken together, the latest figures illustrate a complex picture for Nigeria: rising oil output at home, but declining demand from one of its traditional markets abroad. As global energy flows continue to shift and new suppliers gain prominence, Nigeria faces mounting pressure to diversify both its export base and its trading partners.