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Shale-focused U.S. oil producers could generate $63.4 billion in extra cash flow if the U.S. benchmark crude price averages $100 per barrel this year, intelligence firm Rystad Energy says.

Following the oil price spike to $100 per barrel last week amid the escalating war in the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump touted the benefits for the producers, now that his campaign pledge to slash energy costs for consumers by 50% is not mentioned in the White House’s PR campaign to contain the fallout from the war on the American consumer.

U.S. producers, however, will benefit – those that don’t have exposure to the Middle East and are not forced to shut down or restrict operations in a war region with the world’s most important oil chokepoint closed.

If WTI Crude, the U.S. benchmark, stays at very high levels and averages $100 per barrel for 2026, U.S. producers are poised to reap an additional $63.4 billion cash flow, per Rystad Energy data cited by the Financial Times.

To be sure, most analysts don’t expect $100 oil for a prolonged period of time, although short-term spikes are not being ruled out amid the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

For U.S. oil producers, the benefits are not as clear-cut as President Trump suggested in last week’s post on Truth Social, later re-posted by the official X account of the White House.

“The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,” President Trump said in a controversial post that rattled the oil industry.

The oil sector has had to contend with many other image and reputational risks in recent years, apart from the latest suggestion by the U.S. President that it is profiting from a war.

Shale producers are also reluctant to rush to boost oil production, aware that the current price spike may not last and the geopolitical situation is too volatile to allow for planning beyond next week.

It is this uncertainty that is definitely not in favor of U.S. producers. Any excess cash from the high oil prices would likely go to boost shareholder returns, pay down debt, and hedge production for the coming months, instead of raising production, when prices could crumble in a few weeks, before producers could even contract new rigs and crews.