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(Bloomberg) -- The Iran war threatens to deal significant blows to the Gulf’s biggest economies, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, if it doesn’t end soon.

Qatar and Kuwait could each see their gross domestic product contract by 14% this year should the conflict continue through to the end of April, which would mean a two-month effective halt in oil and natural flows through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Farouk Soussa.

That’d be the worst economic slump for those two countries since the early 1990s, when Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait triggered the Gulf War.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE would fare better given their ability to re-route some oil flows away from the critical Hormuz waterway. But they would still likely see GDP drop by about 3% and 5%, respectively, in what would be the biggest economic hit since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

Goldman’s Soussa described the outlook as a so-called “stress scenario” and said that, in the event of a shorter, 21-day closure of Hormuz, all six Gulf economies would each see GDP shrink by between 2% to 5%.

The length of the war, which began with US and Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, and its impact on energy shipping is highly uncertain. An official to US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that the Iran conflict could last up to six weeks, or roughly until late April.

“For many Gulf economies, the war could have a bigger near-term impact than Covid,” said Soussa, Goldman’s economist for the Middle East and North Africa. “When the dust settles they will rebuild and they will recover, but the scars this conflict leaves on confidence remain to be seen.”

On Monday, Dubai stocks slid into bear-market territory — falling 20% from the last high in February — as the war rattles the real estate and tourism industries as well as energy. The emirate’s equities are the world’s worst performers this month in dollar terms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Goldman’s forecasts underscore how the war in the Middle East is testing the economies of Arab Gulf states. While many of these nations have huge sovereign wealth funds and high foreign reserves, there may be lasting impacts to their reputation as havens in a turbulent region. For Saudi Arabia and the others, that could hinder their ability to continue building their non-oil sectors and diversifying from petroleum.