Market News

In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.

We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.

Traders Go Full Bull as Brent Defies Oversupply Worries

- Defying expectations for a year of enormous oversupply, oil prices have had their strongest start to a year since 2022, with ICE Brent futures now 18% up since the beginning of the year.

- Volatility has been shooting through the roof as the markets anticipate US military strikes on Iran, with Brent monthly call option volumes hitting an all-time high of 5.8 million contracts last month.

- Concurrently to the geopolitical risk premium rising, backwardation in oil futures is steepening, too, with the December 2026 contract currently trading $4 per barrel below April.

- The net positioning of hedge funds in ICE Brent futures has been fervently bullish in recent weeks, with CFTC reporting a net length of 263,186 contracts in the week ending February 17, more than doubling since early January 2026.

Market Movers

- Italy’s oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) is considering revamping its oil trading business, having stopped altogether in 2019, claiming other majors such as Shell or TotalEnergies are making billions from it, eyeing a potential partnership with Mercuria.

- London-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) is expected to advance its Dragon gas field offshore Venezuela after receiving approval from the US Department of the Treasury’s OFAC, aiming for first gas by Q4 2027.

- The BP-ENI joint venture operating in offshore Angola, Azule Energy, has started production at its Ndungu field in Block 15/06, feeding its output into the Agogo hub and eyeing 60,000 b/d of production at its peak.

- Abu Dhabi-based sovereign fund Mubadala Energy acquired a 15% participating interest in the Chevron-operated (NYSE:CVX) Nargis offshore concession in Egypt, farming into ENI’s erstwhile 45% stake.

Tuesday, February 24, 2026

US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva or embassy evacuations aside, the oil markets are still on the edge as yet another week has passed without anything substantial happening between the Trump administration and Iran. ICE Brent continues to hover around $72 per barrel, brushing aside macroeconomic concerns following Trump’s threats of raising temporary import tariffs from 10% to 15%.

Goldman Sachs Embraces Its Internal Bull. US investment bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) has lifted its 2026 price forecast for Brent and WTI by $8 per barrel to $64 and $60 per barrel, respectively, even though it assumes no Iran supply disruptions and OPEC+ restarting its crude production hikes.