Market News

BY Taofeek Oyedokun 

…’Silence not from comfort, but adjustment’

…Prices cannot return to pre-2023 market – Economists

Nigerians are currently navigating what is arguably the country’s most severe economic crisis in decades, one spurred by bold but painful reforms initiated by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration.

From the removal of fuel subsidies to the unification of the exchange rate, these policies were intended to correct long-standing structural imbalances. Instead, they have triggered an unrelenting cost-of-living crisis, sending inflation soaring and pushing millions into poverty.

Transportation now gulps a significant portion of workers’ wages. The cost of food has skyrocketed, and for electricity customers on Band A, energy tariffs have tripled over the last year. For context, a litre of petrol jumped from N190 in May 2023 to N950 in April 2025, while a 50kg bag of rice soared from N30,000 to N90,000 during the same period.

Read also: Reforms pain Nigeria’s struggling families

The consumer price index, which peaked at a record 33.2% in December 2024, saw a brief moderation, falling to 24.48% in January 2025 due to a change in methodology, and further to 23.18% in February. However, March saw a slight reversal, with inflation ticking up to 24.23%, the first increase since the inflation basket was rebased.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria’s inflation will average 26.5% in 2025 and may rise again to 37% by 2026, raising concerns about the durability of current policy measures.

Despite these staggering figures, a noticeable shift has occurred in the public psyche: Nigerians, though bruised, are adjusting. Aside from the initial wave of outrage, which culminated in the #EndBadGovernance protests across parts of northern Nigeria in August 2024, many have stopped vocalising their frustrations. The silence is not from comfort, but adjustment.

“Nigerians are quite resilient and can endure anything,” said Simon Samson, an Economics lecturer at Baze University, Abuja, and head of the consultancy ARKK Economics and Data Limited. “While the harshness of the economic situation is not in doubt, the people have resigned themselves to it. The grueling economic realities have ground them to humility.”

Surviving by adapting

This adjustment isn’t passive. It’s rooted in Nigeria’s unique economic DNA, a combination of structural informality and behavioural adaptability.

“Nigerians’ ability to adjust to the adverse effects of recent economic reforms is driven by a combination of structural and behavioural economic factors,” said Abdulfatai Adedeji, a research fellow at the Centre for the Study of Economies of Africa (CSEA).

“The high level of informality and self-employment, especially in agriculture and small-scale enterprises, provides flexible, though often low-income, avenues for income generation.”

Adedeji explained that this survivalist entrepreneurship, where households juggle multiple ventures to make ends meet, allows people to pivot quickly in response to economic shocks.

“They reprioritise expenditures, focusing on essentials like food while slashing non-essentials. Many are also turning to social networks for support or selling off food stock to stay afloat,” he said, citing data from the 2023/24 General Household Survey.

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According to the report, 14% of households reduced food consumption, 10.6% sold food stock, 9.1% engaged in additional income-generating activities, and nearly 14% received informal support from friends or relatives.

Despite the backlash, some reforms are delivering macroeconomic gains. Exchange rate unification has narrowed the black market premium and restored investor confidence. The scrapping of petrol subsidies, once a fiscal sinkhole, has improved government revenue and encouraged investment in alternatives like Compressed Natural Gas (CNG).

“The unification of the FX market has reduced volatility and improved transparency,” Adedeji explained. “And the removal of fuel subsidies has eased fiscal pressure, increasing FAAC allocations to states and boosting market competition in the downstream sector.”

But he’s quick to caution that these benefits are fragile. “The adjustment costs have been steep, more Nigerians are falling into poverty, and the middle class is vanishing,” he said.

Administrative inefficiencies, like delays in the student loan scheme, underscore Nigeria’s perennial challenge: weak implementation capacity. “Reforms in Nigeria often lack adequate safeguards and transparency, which prevents benefits from reaching those most in need.”

Amid the economic gloom, a faint glimmer of hope flickers. After months of relentless spikes, some food prices have begun to ease. For instance, a 50kg of foreign rice, which once cost over N100,000, now goes for around N90,000.

“The duty-exempt importation of food items and improved harvests have likely contributed to the slight decline,” said Samson. But both he and Adedeji agree: the trend is fragile. “This isn’t sustainable without year-round agriculture and deeper investment in food systems,” Samson warned.

Adedeji added that inflationary pressures persist despite recent disinflation. “Food inflation stood at 21.79% in March 2025,” he noted. “Structural challenges like insecurity in farming regions, climate shocks, and logistics bottlenecks remain unresolved.”

No return to the past

Can prices ever return to pre-2023 levels? Both experts say no. “That ship has long sailed,” Samson said flatly.

In the economist’s view, the reforms could deliver long-term benefits, but only if they are implemented with clear targets, good sequencing, and data-driven strategies. “The authorities must stay the course while ensuring the implementation of these reforms is given a human face,” he added.

“A return to past price baselines would require rapid and sweeping resolution of core inflation drivers, which is unlikely in the short term,” Adedeji echoes. “Nigerians should brace for a new normal, higher prices, but hopefully a slower inflation rate with time.”

To manage this new reality, households must continue prioritising essential spending, diversifying income, and leveraging community support. On the policy side, the government must coordinate fiscal and monetary actions, stabilise the exchange rate, and invest aggressively in agriculture and infrastructure.

The reforms are “directionally sound,” said Adedeji. But their success hinges on credibility, coordination, and most importantly, human-centred implementation, the economist added.

For now, Nigerians continue to endure, not because they are thriving, but because they must. Their patience, worn thin by hardship, is still buoyed by a quiet hope that today’s pain will someday birth a more stable, prosperous tomorrow.