Market News

BY Justice Okamgba

Nigeria’s poverty rate is projected to rise sharply to 62 per cent by 2026, with about 141 million people expected to be living below the poverty line, according to PwC.

The projection is contained in PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026, titled “Turning macroeconomic stability into sustainable growth.”

The report notes that despite recent policy actions aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, weak growth in real incomes and persistently high living costs are likely to push more households into poverty over the next two years.

PwC estimates that most Nigerians will struggle to record income gains strong enough to offset rising prices in the near term, particularly as inflation continues to erode purchasing power.

“Poverty is projected to rise to 62 per cent (141 million people) by 2026, reflecting weak real income growth and lingering inflation effects,” PwC noted.

While inflation is expected to ease gradually, the firm warned that the underlying cost structure of the economy would limit meaningful affordability gains for households.

According to the report, consumption patterns among low-income households are worsening the impact of rising prices. Food accounts for up to 70 per cent of total consumption among poorer Nigerians, making them especially vulnerable to increases in food prices.

With food inflation remaining elevated, these households are disproportionately exposed to price shocks. PwC added that even if headline inflation moderates slightly, high energy costs, logistics expenses and exchange rate pass-through effects will continue to keep the prices of food and essential goods high.

The report warned that rising poverty levels pose significant risks to Nigeria’s economic stability and growth prospects. A growing share of the population struggling to meet basic needs could weaken domestic consumption, constrain productivity growth and place additional pressure on public finances.

The World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update shares a similar view. The lender noted that the absolute number of people living in poverty has increased sharply, from about 81 million in 2019 to roughly 139 million in 2025, meaning nearly 62 per cent of the population now lives below the poverty line. Earlier estimates showed about 115 million Nigerians in poverty in 2023, rising to around 129 million in 2024, indicating that about 14 million people fell into poverty in just one year.

Both PwC and the World Bank caution that without targeted interventions such as job creation, productivity improvements, and effective social protection programmes, reducing poverty levels in Nigeria will remain a major challenge. Rising poverty, they warn, could also weaken domestic consumption, limit productivity growth, and place additional pressure on public finances.