Market News

By Arinze Nwafor

Nigeria’s 2025 export figures indicate progress for the naira. Stakeholders hope that macroeconomic gains from reforms filter down to businesses and households, ARINZE NWAFOR reports

Nigeria’s total exports in the first nine months of 2025 outpaced the corresponding period of 2024 by $3.76bn. The figures feed into the improving local currency amid calls for inclusive gains for businesses and households.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria Quarterly Statistics (December 2025) showed that the country’s total exports in the first nine months of 2025 rose to $44.06bn, an improvement over the $40.29bn recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

This steady expansion in the country’s external trade earnings occurs as policymakers continue to push reforms aimed at stabilising the naira and strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals.

A breakdown of the data showed that July 2025 emerged as the strongest-performing month with exports valued at $5.85bn, followed by May 2025 at $5.18bn. Compared with the corresponding year, the strongest performing month was January 2024 at $5.04bn, followed by August 2024 at $4.68bn.

In contrast, the weakest months in 2024 were September, which posted $3.86bn, and May at $4.27bn. While the weakest months in 2025 were March 2025 at $4.54bn and January 2025 at $4,59bn.

The widest monthly trade gap between the two years occurred in July, with a difference of $1.26bn, while August recorded the narrowest gap at $28.34m.

The improved export performance comes amid renewed stability in the foreign exchange market, with the naira sustaining appreciation at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market and closing at 1,351.02/dollar earlier this week.

Stakeholders say the export growth signals positive momentum for the economy, although they warn that structural bottlenecks still limit the full transmission of gains to households and businesses.

Oil exports remain dominant

The surge in export earnings reflects a combination of stronger crude oil shipments, increased petroleum product exports and a gradual uptick in non-oil exports, according to industry players who spoke with The PUNCH.

The National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Segun Kuti-George, described the performance as encouraging and linked it directly to improved foreign exchange dynamics.

He said, “My assessment of the export performance based on the CBN figures is positive. The export growth performance is good news. It is indeed a very good development, and the reason actually is not far-fetched; number one, there is an increase in the export of crude and petroleum products.”

He added that non-oil exports also contributed significantly to the improved figures: “There is also a significant increase in non-oil exports. Talking about the implication cost, it is huge, and I believe it is already showing some positive impact on not only the exchange rate of the naira but also other aspects of the economy in general.”

NASSI’s Vice President maintained that the strengthening of export receipts has begun to reflect in the relative stability of the naira against the dollar, reversing a prolonged period of volatility.

“We will observe that we not only experience the stability and enduring stability in the rate of the naira against the dollar, but we also, for the first time, experience this make and drop in the value of the dollar against the naira, or appreciation of the naira against the dollar. So, it is all together; it is a positive development,” Kuti-George stated.

Improving naira

Recent movements at the official window appear to support this view. The naira sustained its appreciation trend at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, closing at 1,351.02/dollar, while it gained about N20.36 in the preceding week to close at 1,366.19/$.

Analysts attributed the performance to strong supply from foreign portfolio investors and local participants, alongside improved dollar liquidity.

Stakeholders argue that export growth plays a critical role in boosting foreign exchange supply, thereby easing pressure on the currency.

A former Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry Export Group, Dr Bamidele Ayemibo, said the rising figures suggest that ongoing export strategies are yielding results.

“The figure is looking up, which I think is commendable. What I think we need to do is to see how to ensure that we maintain it so it looks like some of the strategies being deployed by the Nigerian Export Promotion Council are working,” Ayemibo asserted.

He referenced recent data from the Nigerian Export Promotion Council indicating record non-oil export performance.

“NEPC also released data last week or two weeks ago on the record performance of $6.1bn, so all in all I think we are making progress, even though I feel we are supposed to be doing a lot better,” he said.

Ayemibo argued that while the upward trend marks progress, Nigeria still underperforms relative to its economic size and global peers.

“Because, given our size and comparing ourselves to our counterparts around the world, we are not doing enough, but the fact that we are growing is also a good indication that at least we are not where we used to be; we are making some progress,” he added.

Export boosters

Beyond headline numbers, analysts say several structural factors explain the improved export trajectory.

First, increased crude oil output and improved security in oil-producing regions have boosted shipment volumes. Second, refining activities and petroleum product exports have expanded, contributing additional inflows. Third, policy reforms aimed at unifying exchange rates and improving transparency in the forex market have strengthened investor confidence.

Dr Ayemibo emphasised that sustained export growth could significantly enhance the country’s reserve position and currency value if authorities prioritise non-oil exports.

“Exports have the potential to actually help the naira to become very strong because we can have a non-dollar that will outweigh our demand and that can make us grow our reserve and, consequently, improve the value of the naira vis-à-vis other currencies around the world,” he said.

However, Ayemibo expressed concern over insufficient institutional support: “I feel if NEPC is given all the support it needs in terms of funding and NEXIM is given all the support it needs in terms of export credit insurance and facilities to exporters, I am sure we will do a lot better than where we are.”

The former LCCI chief observed that Nigeria still relies excessively on oil exports, foreign direct investment and portfolio inflows rather than building a robust, diversified export base.

Stakeholders also highlighted the potential ripple effects of stronger exports on production costs and industrial activity.

Implications for the real sector

The Secretary of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria Export Promotion Group, Dr Benedict Obhiosa, said export growth strengthens the macroeconomic environment and reduces exchange rate pressure on manufacturers.

“What we can see is that the export trajectory is good for the economy.

If it is going to continue in 2026, it will be very good also, because it will make expenditures or expenses or things, whatever it is you want to pay for in dollars, a little bit more affordable for the manufacturers or those who might be buying things in higher currency,” Obhiosa said.

He noted that improved exchange rate stability lowers the cost of importing machinery and critical inputs: “For example, if you are going to be importing machinery, you will find it easier to do so because of the exchange rate.”

Stakeholders urge inclusive growth

Despite these macro-level improvements, stakeholders raised concerns about weak transmission to the broader population.

Kuti-George expressed optimism that sustained currency stability would gradually reduce import costs and consumer prices.

He asserted, “A continuous stability in the rate of the naira or even an appreciation of the naira against the dollar will mean that the prices of imports or importations will come down. That means the cost of input into the production of both tangible and intangible goods will be dropping. Prices will also be expected to drop, and that means it will trickle down.”

He pointed to early signs of price moderation in essential commodities, stating, “I understand that the price of a bag of rice is down, not very high, but there could be a downward trend. You will agree with me that it is an unusual thing for us.”

However, Obhiosa highlighted a disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and realities on the ground, saying, “But all of this is put together. It is like a disconnect between the figures that CBN is publishing and what is happening to a common man on the street.”

He cited rising rents and persistently high prices of goods despite exchange rate stability. “A lady told me that their rent was N300,000 for a two-bedroom flat. Around last December or this January, their landlord served them a notice of increment from N300,000 to N800,000. What has increased in the economy that led to that?” he asked.

The MANEG secretary noted that market behaviour often defies classical economic theory. “In Nigeria, there is an increase in supply, and the price goes up. Decrease in demand, the price goes up,” Obhiosa said.

He argued that without effective regulatory oversight and stronger competition, macroeconomic gains may not translate into lower living costs.

The stakeholders affirmed that export growth alone cannot solve deep-rooted structural challenges. They urged the Federal Government to provide stronger policy backing and funding support to export institutions to unlock Nigeria’s full potential.

LCCI’s Ayemibo maintained that export-led growth remains one of the most viable pathways to strengthening reserves, stabilising the currency and driving inclusive economic expansion.