Market News
IMF trims 2025 Middle East, North Africa growth forecast to 2.6% as global risks mount - REUTERS
By Manya Saini
Summary
- IMF sees sharp growth slowdown in 2025 for non-GCC oil exporters
- GCC economies projected to strengthen despite slower growth pace
- Conflicts severely impact MENA's oil importing economies, IMF says
DUBAI, May 1 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it now expects Middle East and North Africa economies to grow by just 2.6% in 2025 as uncertainties stemming from a global trade war and weaker oil prices weigh on the region.
The fresh projection marked a sharp downgrade from its October projection of 4% growth and comes as the region grapples with geopolitical tensions, softer external demand and oil market volatility.
"Uncertainty could impact the real economy, consumption, investment... all these elements led to a softening of our projections," Jihad Azour, the IMF's director for the Middle East and Central Asia department, told Reuters in an interview.
"The direct impact of the tariff measures is limited because the integration in terms of trade between the region and the U.S. is limited."
The IMF also pointed to a gradual recovery in oil production, protracted regional conflicts, and delayed structural reforms, particularly in Egypt, in its latest Regional Economic Outlook report released in Dubai.
"The ongoing conflicts in the MENA region have inflicted profound humanitarian costs and left deep economic scars," it said in the report, adding that the impact has been severe for the region's oil importing economies.
The MENA non-oil importers are now expected to see real GDP growth of 3.4% in 2025, versus an earlier forecast of 3.6%.
