Market News

BY Sami Tunji, Josephine Ogundeji and Arinze Nwafor

The National Bureau of Statistics released its Consumer Price Index report for April 2025, revealing a slight easing in Nigeria’s inflation rate compared to previous months and the same period last year.

The headline inflation rate moderated to 23.71 per cent year-on-year, marking a decline from 24.23 per cent recorded in March 2025 and a sharp reduction from 33.69 per cent in April 2024.

On a month-on-month basis, the inflation rate dropped sharply to 1.86 per cent in April 2025, down from 3.90 per cent in March. This indicates a slower rate of price increases across consumer goods and services during the month.

The NBS report read, “The Consumer Price Index rose to 119.52 in April 2025, reflecting a 2.18-point increase from the preceding month. In April 2025, the Headline inflation rate eased to 23.71 per cent relative to the March 2025 headline inflation rate of 24.23 per cent. Looking at the movement, the April 2025 Headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 0.52 per cent compared to the March 2025 Headline inflation rate.

“On a year-on-year basis, the Headline inflation rate was 9.99 per cent lower than the rate recorded in April 2024 (33.69 per cent). This shows that the Headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in April 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., April 2024), though with a different base year.”

Despite a slight easing in Nigeria’s overall inflation rate in April 2025, 10 states and the Federal Capital Territory recorded inflation rates exceeding 30 per cent, highlighting persistent price pressures in several parts of the country.

According to the latest CPI report released by the NBS, while the national headline inflation rate moderated to 23.71 per cent year-on-year in April, inflation in specific states remained alarmingly high.

Urban inflation, which reflects price changes in cities and towns where the majority of Nigerians reside, remained elevated at 24.29 per cent in April 2025, signalling that many urban households continue to grapple with rising living costs.

The monthly urban inflation rate was 1.18 per cent, a decline from 3.96 per cent in March. Rural inflation was slightly lower at 22.83 per cent year-on-year, down from 31.64 per cent in April 2024.

The month-on-month rural inflation was 3.56 per cent, marginally lower than March’s 3.73 per cent. The PUNCH observed that the states that witnessed inflation surpassing 30 per cent include Enugu, Kebbi, Niger, Benue, Ekiti, Nassarawa, Zamfara, Delta, Gombe, and Sokoto, alongside Abuja, the nation’s capital.

These figures highlight a stark contrast with the national average and demonstrate the unevenness of inflationary pressures across the federation. Enugu emerged as the state with the highest headline inflation, recording a year-on-year rate of 36.0 per cent.

This represents a sharp increase compared to previous months and was accompanied by a significant 12.3 per cent month-on-month rise in the all-items inflation index.

Food inflation in Enugu stood at 24.4 per cent in April, with a modest 3.9 per cent month-on-month increase, pointing to continued pressure on food prices amid broader cost-of-living challenges.

Kebbi State also reported persistently high inflation figures, with the all-items inflation rate at 35.1 per cent year-on-year, increasing by 5.4 per cent month-on-month. Food inflation in Kebbi rose to 33.8 per cent in April, up 4.3 per cent compared to the previous month.

This suggests that food price increases are a major contributor to overall inflation in the state. In Niger State, the inflation rate surged to 34.8 per cent year-on-year in April, reflecting a notable 14.7 per cent increase on a month-on-month basis, the highest monthly jump among the states reporting inflation above 30 per cent.

Food inflation in Niger was recorded at 24.3 per cent, increasing by 5.7 per cent month-on-month. Benue State presented an especially concerning picture with food inflation reaching a staggering 51.8 per cent year-on-year, alongside a dramatic 25.6 per cent monthly increase in food prices.

This sharp escalation in food prices is due to the persistent insecurity in the region. The overall all-items inflation rate in Benue was 34.3 per cent, rising 12.8 per cent month-on-month.

Ekiti State also recorded an all-items inflation rate of 34.0 per cent, matched by a similarly high food inflation rate of 34.0 per cent year-on-year. Month-on-month, prices rose by 11.0 per cent for all items and 16.7 per cent for food.

Nassarawa State’s inflation profile featured a year-on-year increase of 33.3 per cent in the all-items index, with an especially sharp monthly rise of 16.0 per cent.

Food inflation, at 23.3 per cent year-on-year, also rose by 7.4 per cent month-on-month. Zamfara State reported an annual all-items inflation rate of 33.2 per cent, with a smaller but still significant month-on-month increase of 4.6 per cent.

Food inflation was 24.0 per cent, rising marginally by 0.4 per cent month-on-month. Though the monthly food inflation rise was subdued, the persistently high annual rates point to entrenched inflationary pressures affecting consumer purchasing power.

The Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, registered an all-items inflation rate of 32.9 per cent year-on-year, with a 9.8 per cent increase on a monthly basis. Interestingly, food inflation in Abuja declined slightly by 0.7 per cent month-on-month to 22.2 per cent year-on-year, suggesting some stabilisation of food prices in the capital.

Delta State reported a 31.9 per cent all-items inflation rate year-on-year, increasing by 10.7 per cent month-on-month, with food inflation at 15.9 per cent and a modest 2.2 per cent monthly increase.

The divergence between food and all-items inflation suggests that rising prices in non-food categories such as housing, utilities, and transport are significant drivers of inflation in Delta.

Gombe State recorded an all-items inflation rate of 31.0 per cent, rising 9.0 per cent month-on-month, with food inflation at 26.4 per cent and a monthly increase of 5.8 per cent. These figures point to broad-based price increases affecting the cost of living in the state.

Sokoto State’s inflation stood at 30.5 per cent year-on-year, with a striking 16.3 per cent month-on-month rise, while food inflation was 25.3 per cent, increasing 13.1 per cent month-on-month.

These state-level inflation figures highlight the heterogeneous nature of inflationary pressures across Nigeria. While some states experience sharp monthly spikes, others have more gradual but persistently high inflation rates.

Food inflation, a key component of the CPI basket given Nigeria’s consumption patterns, remains especially high in states such as Benue, Kebbi, Ekiti, and Sokoto, with year-on-year increases well above the national average.

This places severe strain on households’ disposable incomes, exacerbating poverty and food insecurity. The national Food inflation slowed sharply to 21.26 per cent year-on-year in April 2025, down considerably from 40.53 per cent in the same period last year.

This marked decline is largely attributed to the change in the base year used for calculations, as well as falling prices of essential staples including maize flour, wheat grain, dried okro, yam flour, soybeans, rice and various beans.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation edged down slightly to 2.06 per cent in April, a 0.12 percentage point decrease from March’s 2.18 per cent. The average food inflation rate over the past twelve months stood at 31.43 per cent, marginally lower than the 32.74 per cent recorded in the previous year.

Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes the often-volatile prices of farm produce and energy, settled at 23.39 per cent year-on-year, down from 26.84 per cent a year earlier. Month-on-month, core inflation fell sharply to 1.34 per cent in April from 3.73 per cent in March.

Over the 12 months ending April 2025, core inflation averaged 24.91 per cent, up from 22.84 per cent in April 2024. Energy prices recorded a steep rise of 13.6 per cent month-on-month in April, following a 9.21 per cent increase in March.

Inflation on farm produce moderated to 0.95 per cent in April from 2.64 per cent in March, while services inflation also slowed to 2.20 per cent from 3.44 per cent. The goods index recorded a modest month-on-month increase of 1.89 per cent.

The NBS report suggests that inflation easing at the national level has not yet translated into relief for many Nigerians, especially those living in states with persistently high inflation.

OPS not convinced

Reacting to the development, the National President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, said despite the slight easing in inflation, Nigeria’s Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises are yet to feel the impact.

He asserted, “The marginal drop in Nigeria’s inflation rate to 23.71 per cent in April 2025 is a welcome development on the surface, but for MSMEs, the impact is yet to be truly felt. While the easing of inflationary pressure, especially in food prices, offers a glimmer of hope, the realities on the ground for small businesses remain harsh. Input costs are still high, consumer purchasing power remains weak, and access to affordable financing is limited.

“Many MSMEs are still grappling with the cumulative effects of prolonged inflation, from dwindling sales to supply chain disruptions and eroded working capita. Until these gains are sustained over time and translate into lower operating costs and improved consumer demand, the MSME sector will remain under significant strain.

“We urge the government to complement these macroeconomic gains with targeted support policies for MSMEs, including tax reliefs, access to low-interest credit, and market access support, to ensure that the sector can begin to recover and contribute meaningfully to economic growth and job creation.”

In a similar vein, the Chairman of the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria, Dele Oye, said the decline in inflation hasn’t been felt.

He said, “Our members have not felt the impact. Too early to comment on the report.”

Meanwhile, the National Vice President of the Nigerian Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Segun Kuti-George, said the decrease was too little for any meaningful or noticeable impact

“The Consumer Price Index is universally used to measure inflation rates, and the NBI claimed to have used the same. Hence, it would be said to be correct.

“However, the decrease in change is too little for any meaningful or noticeable impact. We in the manufacturing sector have not felt any positive change in the prices of our inputs. Prices of basic raw materials are still maintaining an upward trend. Therefore, we are very far from Uhuru.”

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry qualified April’s 23.71 per cent inflation rate as unremarkable. While the chamber acknowledged that inflation dropping by 0.52 per cent from the 24.23 per cent recorded in March 2025 meant that inflation was not worsening, it ruled out any celebration, rather urging more focus on workable inflation-reduction policies.

“This is nothing significant statistically or even in terms of impact on all of the economic metrics,” Idahosa stated in a phone interview with The PUNCH. “If anything, the current interpretation is that inflation has remained flat. A drop of that kind of magnitude is not significant in any sense.”

Idahosa warned that there is no reason to rejoice at April’s inflation rate, stating, “No, there’s no reason to rejoice. There is just reason to be hopeful that what has started as a signal will begin to manifest in terms of a larger drop in inflation rates month-on-month.”

The LCCI president offered a cautious hope that a marginal drop in April’s inflation might result in a slow build-up to a sizable lowering of inflation rates, given the right conditions.

Idahosa explained: “The only thing to be said about (April’s inflation rate) is that it’s not getting worse. It’s flat, and it gives a sign that we are going to see a trend of gradually lowering inflation rates. It’s very gradual because the factors that are driving it are working very gradually.”

According to the LCCI, reduced transportation costs enabled by electric and Compressed Natural Gas vehicles will precede any significant reduction in inflation. However, Idahosa noted that high costs have slowed the pace of converting to these alternative energy sources.

“The factors that ensure we are reducing the cost of transportation include getting more CNG buses and electric vehicles, obviously takes a lot of cost to convert to, whether they are buses in a state like Lagos and a few other states that are bringing out electric vehicles,” he added.

The LCCI predicted a consistent drop in inflation over four to five months, noting that the forces that have kept inflation flat will continue to work until the country sees a significant drop.

Further, Idahosa observed that, with April’s inflation rate, any private sector expectations of the Monetary Policy Committee loosening interest rates are dashed.

“(April’s drop) has no immediate impact on interest rates. There is no reason to expect any significant drop in interest rates,” he asserted. “What the business community is looking at is a kind of signalling from the Central Bank of Nigeria to reduce the monetary policy rate by a very small amount; to send a message that in the future, MPR will slide down slowly but steadily.

“We do not expect any dramatic drops in the MPR and general interest rates, seeing we are in a plateau and just coasting around where we are in the economy now.”

Addressing the root causes, including improving agricultural productivity, enhancing supply chain efficiency, stabilising energy prices, and boosting market competition, will be essential in curbing inflationary pressures.

The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s inflation rate will average 22.1 per cent in 2025, attributing the anticipated decline to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s tight monetary stance aimed at restoring price stability and anchoring inflation expectations.

The projection was contained in a statement published Monday on the World Bank’s website, following the formal launch of the latest edition of the Nigeria Development Update report in Abuja.

The biannual report, titled “Building Momentum for Inclusive Growth,” assesses recent economic trends and policy responses, and outlines priorities for sustaining reforms and promoting inclusive growth.

According to the report, while macroeconomic indicators have improved significantly, particularly GDP growth, revenue mobilisation, and fiscal consolidation, headline inflation remains a pressing concern.

“The report further adds that inflation has remained high and sticky but is expected to fall to an annual average of 22.1 per cent in 2025, as a sustained tight stance firmly establishes monetary policy credibility and dampens inflationary expectations,” the statement read.

The World Bank identified the major drivers of elevated inflation in recent years to include the removal of petrol subsidies, exchange rate unification, rising logistics and energy costs, and recurring food supply disruptions.

However, it noted that the Central Bank’s ongoing monetary tightening efforts are starting to show positive signs, with inflationary pressures expected to ease going into 2025.