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Analysis-Yuan expected to rise in 2026, but Beijing has its reasons for saying not so fast - REUTERS

FEBRUARY 04, 2026

Summary

  • Exports drive 6% yuan gain vs dollar in nine months
  • Average of 13 analyst forecasts has yuan at 6.92/dlr in Dec
  • Goldman Sachs revises forecast stronger to 6.7

SHANGHAI, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Booming exports are pushing up China's currency and while analysts think authorities will resist further gains, risks are to the upside and could test the country's fragile economy.
As the yuan exchange rate tiptoed toward and then passed the strong side of 7-per-dollar last year, foreign currency flows into Chinese banks hit a record $452 billion in December.

The amount converted to yuan also hit a record of $311 billion, figures from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed, with the flow sending the exchange rate to its strongest point since 2023 at 6.9378 per dollar on Tuesday.
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