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Traders See Cocoa Rally Top $15,000 on Lingering Supply Shortage - BLOOMBERG
, Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- Cocoa prices have been on a tear this year and the rally may have even more room to run as bean shortages persist.
Futures will continue to trade at increasingly higher levels, according to nine traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg at the World Cocoa Conference in Brussels. Three said prices in New York could trade above $15,000 a ton before the end of the year. The others said they couldn’t see where the market would top out given the unprecedented spikes.
Most saw prices peak by around September or October as the flow of beans from producers slow down as the current season ends.
New York futures traded as much as 3.3% higher on Thursday, while prices in London rose as much as 2.6%.
Production declines in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s largest producers, have left buyers struggling for supplies and paying high premiums. That’s also forced the two countries to roll over contracts amounting to around 400,000 tons of cocoa, adding to the supply tightness.
With origins running low, traders are increasingly tapping cocoa held in exchanges in London and New York, often considered poor quality, according to Northon Coimbrao, director of sourcing at chocolatier Natra.
“Quality has become secondary for most processors who are happy to take cocoa from the exchange,” said Coimbrao. “That will drive down stocks and support prices even further.”
Read More: Cocoa Resumes Rally in Most Extreme Market Since the 1970s
Futures have soared about 160% already this year, nearing $12,000 a ton in New York. That’s putting traders and chocolate makers under pressure as they face rising margin calls to back up their hedges and higher bean prices in the physical market.
“If there is a silver lining, it’s this, the market has been able to absorb the price increase from chocolate makers to consumers,” said Jutta Urpilainen, European Commissioner for International Partnerships. “Stakeholders across the value chain have been willing to pay more.”
For now, the market is optimistic about demand, following better-than-expected cocoa grindings data.
Still, the current surge is yet to fully feed through to consumers as some chocolate makers are covered for supplies. That hit could be six months to a year in the future, said Steve Wateridge, head of research at Tropical Research Services.
--With assistance from Ilena Peng.
