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Oil Holds Biggest Decline in Three Weeks With Glut in Focus - BLOOMBERG
BY Yongchang Chin
(Bloomberg) — Oil steadied after the biggest drop in almost three weeks, as traders look to reports this week to assess the extent of the glut.
Brent crude (BZ=F) traded above $62 a barrel after tumbling 2% on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was near $59. The Energy Information Administration is set to release its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday, with reports due from the International Energy Agency and OPEC later this week.
The IEA has predicted a record surplus next year, and traders will be on the lookout for any changes to market outlooks. Crude has traded in a tight $4-a-barrel range since the start of November, with investors also weighing the impact of sanctions against Russia and a potential curtailment of exports.
“The surplus in the oil market is set to grow in 2026” with supply exceeding demand by more than 2 million barrels a day, said Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy for ING Groep NV. “We forecast that Brent will average $57 a barrel over the year, with the key assumption being that Russian oil flows continue unabated despite US sanctions.”
India, the top buyer of seaborne crude from Moscow, is set to reduce its intake, and its purchases are likely to be a key talking point in trade negotiations with the US this week. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the South Asian nation last week, showcasing a warming of ties.
Elsewhere, Ukraine’s continued attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure threaten to upend crude output and exports into wider markets. There’s been disruptions at the key CPC export terminal in the Black Sea, with the lower capabilities also affecting shipments from Kazakhstan.
