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Nigeria Increases Rates by More Than Expected to Curb Inflation - BLOOMBERG
(Bloomberg) -- Nigeria’s central bank raised interest rates more than forecast as part of its longest unbroken cycle of monetary tightening in 11 years, saying it’s committed to reining in inflation.
The monetary policy committee raised the benchmark for the fourth time in a row to 16.5% from 15.5%, Governor Godwin Emefiele said Tuesday in Abuja, the capital. The hike was more than the median estimate of 12 economists in a Bloomberg survey for a 75 basis-point increase.
The MPC is acting “to make sure that we’re able to keep prices at a moderate level,” Emefiele said.
Nigeria has increased interest rates by a cumulative 500 basis points this year, making it one of five central banks on the continent that have raised borrowing costs by 5 percentage points or more.
Of the panel’s 11 members who attended the meeting, nine voted for a 100 basis-point increase and two preferred a 50-basis-point hike.
The pace of monetary tightening slowed from the previous meeting as inflation moderated since September, Emefiele said.
While annual inflation is at more than double the 9% ceiling of the central bank’s target band, it’s accelerated at a slower pace since the MPC lifted interest rates by 1.5 percentage points in September and also increased the cash reserve ratio. The monthly inflation rate has also dropped.
“While the CBN has taken comfort from the October slowing in month-on-month inflation, we’re not sure how much can be read into this -- – especially given the likelihood of fuel subsidy reforms post-elections,” said Razia Khan, head of research for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered.
The nation is due to hold elections in February and is expected to scrap a costly fuel subsidy that’s drained public finances.
Flash floods that have submerged nearly 400,000 hectares (988,420 acres) of farmland and a continued slump in the naira on the official and widely-used parallel markets are also expected to keep inflation elevated.
Nigeria operates a multiple exchange regime dominated by a tightly controlled official rate, cutting off access to many businesses and individuals, which in turn drives demand to the unauthorized black market.
The median estimate of 10 economists polled by Bloomberg in November is for inflation to average 19% this year, compared with their August forecast of 18%. Price growth has so far averaged 18.2% for the year through October.
“Lower inflation settings and the restoration of a better-functioning forex market would serve Nigeria well, given these challenges,” Khan said.
The naira was little changed at 4:07 p.m. in Abuja, trading 444.11 against the dollar.
The decision suggests the central bank believes more caution is warranted on monetary policy as higher borrowing costs filter through to the broader economy and output growth may be slower than previously forecast.
The MPC projects the economy of Africa’s most populous nation, where almost two-thirds of the population live on less than $2 a day, will expand 3.3% this year, compared with 3.5% projected at its previous meeting, said Emefiele. That’s more than population growth that’s averaged 2.6% in the last decade, according to World Bank data.
--With assistance from Simbarashe Gumbo, Emele Onu and Rene Vollgraaff.




