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NESG: Naira to trade near N1,480/$1, external reserves to hit $52bn - THE SUN
By Chinwendu Obienyi
Nigeria’s currency is likely to stabilise as the country consolidates sweeping economic reforms, with the naira projected to trade around N1,480 to the dollar this year and external reserves rising to $52 billion, according to the Nigerian Economic Summit Group.
The private-sector think tank said the outlook reflects a gradual shift from crisis management to what it described as a “consolidation phase” following painful policy changes that dismantled long-standing distortions in the foreign-exchange market, energy pricing and monetary conditions.
Speaking at the launch of its 2026 macroeconomic outlook in Lagos on Thursday, the group also added that inflation is expected to ease to about 16 per cent this year and fall into single digits of between 8 per cent and 10 per cent by 2027, while gross domestic product growth could reach 5.5 per cent, driven mainly by improved performance in agriculture and manufacturing.
Chairman, NESG, Olaniyi Yusuf, said, Nigeria has entered a critical transition phase. According to him, Nigeria must move beyond short-term fire-fighting to system-building, strengthening the institutions that convert reforms into sustainable productivity gains.
After more than a decade of currency controls, fuel subsidies and heavy central-bank intervention, the FG embarked on a series of reforms beginning in 2023, including the removal of petrol subsidies and the unification of multiple foreign-exchange windows. Those measures triggered sharp price increases and a steep devaluation of the naira, fueling inflation and sparking public discontent.
But Yusuf said early signs of stabilization are now emerging. According to him, the economy is gradually shifting from reform-induced dislocation to a more predictable macroeconomic environment, even though deep structural weaknesses persist.
The consolidation phase, he explained, requires consistent policy sequencing, fiscal discipline and realism in implementation, a warning against reform reversals that have historically undermined Nigeria’s adjustment programs.
“Reform fatigue is real. But reversing these reforms would be far more costly than staying the course”, Yusuf said.
Also speaking, Chief Economist and Director of Research at NESG, Olusegun Omisakin, said the projections are anchored on the group’s medium-term macroeconomic framework through 2029.
He added that agriculture and manufacturing are expected to become the main growth engines as policy coherence improves and productivity rises.
“For 2026, with strong emphasis on agriculture and manufacturing, we believe the economy can achieve growth of about 5.5 per cent, building on last year’s estimated 5 per cent under an optimistic scenario,” Omisakin said.
The group also forecasted Nigeria’s external reserves to climb to $52 billion as higher oil receipts, improved non-oil exports and reduced pressure on the central bank bolster foreign-currency buffers.
According to NESG, the improved reserve position is expected to support exchange-rate stability and restore investor confidence, which has been dented by years of capital controls and unpredictable policy shifts.
Still, the group warned that the outlook remains fragile. It said that any return to fuel subsidies, political interference in monetary policy or renewed insecurity in key food-producing regions could derail the dis-inflation path and reignite pressure on the naira.
Recall that the World Bank on Tuesday increased its economic projection growth rate to 4.4 per cent from 3.7 per cent forecasted last year in June.
