Market News
IMF sees steady global growth in 2026 as AI boom offsets trade headwinds -- REUTERS
Jan 19 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund again edged its 2026 global growth forecast higher on Monday as businesses and economies adapt to U.S. tariffs that have eased in recent months and a continued AI investment boom that has fueled asset wealth and expectations of productivity gains.
The IMF in its World Economic Outlook update forecast global GDP growth at 3.3% in 2026, up 0.2 percentage point from its last estimate in October. That's even with 3.3% growth in 2025, which will also beat the October estimate by 0.1 percentage point, the IMF said.
The global crisis lender forecast 2027 growth at 3.2%, unchanged from the previous forecast. It has revised global growth rates higher since last July in response to trade deals that have reduced President Donald Trump's tariff rates that peaked in April 2025.
"We find that global growth remains quite resilient," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters, adding that the Fund's 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts now exceed predictions made in October 2024, before Trump was elected to a second term.
"So, in a sense, the global economy is shaking off the trade and tariff disruptions of 2025 and is coming out ahead of what we were expecting before it all started," Gourinchas said.
