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China’s trade surplus hits record $1tn despite Trump’s tariffs - THE TELEGRAPH
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China’s goods trade surplus has tipped over $1tn for the first time on record despite Donald Trump’s trade war.
Official data showed Beijing’s trade surplus in goods stood at $1.076tn (£800m) in the first 11 months of the year. Exports to the rest of the world more than offset a collapse in goods sent to the US.
Monthly data also revealed exports rose 5.9pc in the year to November, even as shipments to the US collapsed 28.6pc year-on-year. By contrast, shipments to non-US markets rose 12.1pc.
Tensions between Washington DC and Beijing have eased following a tit-for-tat trade war earlier this year that saw average Chinese tariffs on US imports peak at 147.6pc in April before being cut back.
Analysis by the Peterson Institute shows average US tariffs on Chinese exports now stand at 47.5pc and cover all goods, down from just under 60pc when Mr Trump reentered the White House.
Regardless, Mr Trump’s sabre rattling has prompted Chinese businesses to explore alternative markets. They have been sending more shipments to the EU, Latin America and Africa to make up for lost trade to the US.
The move has drawn negative reaction from leaders in Europe, with French President Emmanuel Macron warning that increased trade diversion had created a “life or death” situation for European industry.
Speaking on a visit to China late last week, Mr Macron also branded the US approach to Beijing “inappropriate” because it has led to a flood of Chinese goods into the EU market.
He said: “Today, we’re stuck between the two, and it’s a question of life or death for European industry.”
Economists said the China’s solid trade performance would help to cement 5pc growth this year and keep the momentum going into 2026.
Analysts at Citi said: “We believe exports will remain a key driver for growth next year. In our base case, the US-China trade truce will likely be sustained through 2026 despite being fragile.”
Duncan Wrigley at Pantheon Macroeconomics said the data signalled China continued to rely on exports to drive growth, despite a decades-long pledge to move towards higher consumer spending.
He said: “November’s data suggest this approach remains viable, despite US tariffs, with shipments to non-US markets rising 12.1pc. That said, some developed markets are likely to take protectionist measures, as President Macron said with respect to the EU.
“Exports to the Global South should remain resilient, though growth rates to markets like Africa may slow given the meteoric rises this year.”
Mr Wrigley added: “Chinese exports will continue to climb the value-added ladder, with high-tech exports like autos outperforming low-tech goods.”
